Impact of Iran–US Tensions on Local Security and Civilian Life in Iraq: Evidence from UCDP Georeferenced Event Data
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54938/ijemdss.2026.05.3.769Keywords:
Iran-US tensions, Iraq security, civilian life, UCDP GED, conflict events, state-based violenceAbstract
This study examines the impact of Iran-US tensions on local security and civilian life in Iraq, as measured through UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. Iraq's geographical location, internal political tensions, foreign military presence and engagement of armed groups and militias have placed it at a high risk of being dragged into regional conflict dynamics. This study has used a quantitative descriptive research design after examining events during the conflict in Iraq will be analyzed in the period 2019-2025. The 1,510 conflict events were analyzed using frequency distributions, descriptive statistics, cross-tabulations and graphical analysis with SPSS. The results show that 2021 was the year of the highest frequency of conflict events, where 322 conflict events were recorded. In 2019 cases of civilian deaths and total fatalities were the most with higher mean civilian death, indicating that earlier events were more deadly. State based violence was the most prevalent form of violence, representing 1,383 incidents, and one-sided violence represented 127 of the violence incidents. Results were presented province-wise, showing the highest occurrence of conflict events in Dahuk, followed by Diyala, Arbil and Salah ad Din. The findings also yielded mixed results on the effect on violence in Iraq, with some provinces reporting more violence than others, and some more lethal than others. The findings of study suggest that Iran-US tensions and regional dynamics were conducive to the insecurity, incurring damages to civilians and instability in Iraq. The study emphasizes the need to account for the local impact of international tensions as reported through event-level information.
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