Climate-Water Nexus and Livestock Production: Unraveling Dynamic Interactions in Pakistan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54938/ijemdss.2026.05.3.748Abstract
Pakistan’s livestock sector is increasingly exposed to climate variability and water insecurity, yet the dynamic relationship between environmental conditions and livestock production remains insufficiently understood. This study examines the long-run and short-run effects of climate variability, water availability, and key socioeconomic and agricultural factors on livestock production in Pakistan. Using annual time-series data, the study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit-root tests, followed by Johansen cointegration analysis and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to capture both equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustments. The results reveal significant long-run relationships among livestock production, temperature, precipitation, water availability, forest area, cropped area, population, and inflation. Temperature and inflation negatively affect livestock production, whereas precipitation, water availability, forest area, and cropped area exert positive effects. Water availability demonstrates a particularly important positive association in both the long and short run. The significant negative error-correction coefficient indicates that approximately 59.5% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected within one period, confirming relatively rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. The findings highlight the need for climate-resilient livestock policies, improved water-resource management, sustainable land use, and adaptive agricultural strategies to strengthen Pakistan’s livestock production under increasing climatic and resource pressures.
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