Spatio-Temporal Residential Land-Use Change in District Abbottabad by Using Machine Learning Model from 1992-2022 Pakistan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54938/ijemdss.2026.05.1.716Keywords:
Land Use Land Cover change (LULC), Geographic Information System (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS)Abstract
A city not only grows in population but also changes in spatial dimension. Land transformation is a natural phenomenon that can not be stopped but may be regulated. Land is one of the most important sources for human survival and other activities, including its ecosystem. All humans benefit from the available resources on land, which is called land use. The purpose of the study is to monitor land use and land cover in District Abbottabad, focusing on the major transformation in different types of land use changes from 1992 to 2022 by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) technologies, and data visualization performed by Phython Libraries in Machine learning. Supervised digital classification using a maximum likelihood classifier was applied to prepare a land use/land cover map. The land was classified into five categories: settlement, forest, water bodies, barren land, and vegetation cover. Resultant land cover land use overlay maps were generated in ArcMap to indicate the significant shift from Vegetation to Settlement. Analysis revealed that vegetation and forest areas have improved in the study area at a greater pace due to the billion Tsunami project, but settlement is increasing drastically and barren land is also reducing due to urbanization. Water bodies are also being adversely affected due to increasing settlement. The city is facing water stress and a shortage of drinking water. One of the main causes of Population growth is migration from rural and other catering area.
Downloads
References
Al-Faraj, F. A. M., & Scholz, M. (2015). Impact of upstream anthropogenic river regulation on downstream water availability in transboundary river watersheds. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 31(1), 28–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2014.924395
Rimal, B. (2011). Application of remote sensing and GIS, land use/land cover change in Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Nepal. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology, 23(1), 80–86.
Butler, C. D., Corvalan, C. F., & Koren, H. S. (2005). Human health, well-being, and global ecological scenarios. Ecosystems, 8(2), 153–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-004-0076-0
Chan, K. W. (2010). Fundamentals of China's urbanization and policy. The China Review, 10(1), 63–94.
Chang, K.-T. (2019). Introduction to geographic information systems (9th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Díaz, G. I., Nahuelhual, L., Echeverría, C., & Marín, S. (2011). Drivers of land abandonment in Southern Chile and implications for landscape planning. Landscape and Urban Planning, 99(3–4), 207–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.11.005
Findell, K. L., Berg, A., Gentine, P., Krasting, J. P., Lintner, B. R., Malyshev, S., Santanello, J. A., Jr., & Shevliakova, E. (2017). The impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes. Nature Communications, 8(1), 989. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01038-w
Franklin, S. E., & Giles, P. T. (1995). Radiometric processing of aerial and satellite remote-sensing imagery. Computers & Geosciences, 21(3), 413–423. https://doi.org/10.1016/0098-3004(94)00085-9
Gainsbury, A. M., Santos, E. G., & Wiederhecker, H. (2022). Does urbanization impact terrestrial vertebrate ectotherms across a biodiversity hotspot? Science of the Total Environment, 835, 155446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155446
Gibson, L., Münch, Z., Palmer, A., & Mantel, S. (2018). Future land cover change scenarios in South African grasslands—Implications of altered biophysical drivers on land management. Heliyon, 4(7), e00693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00693
Green, K., Kempka, D., & Lackey, L. (1994). Using remote sensing to detect and monitor land cover and land use change. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 60(3), 331–337.
Grubler, A., & Fisk, D. (Eds.). (2012). Energizing sustainable cities: Assessing urban energy. Earthscan/Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203110126
Gu, C. (2019). Urbanization: Processes and driving forces. Science China Earth Sciences, 62(9), 1351–1360. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-018-9359-y
Hill, J., & Sturm, B. (1991). Radiometric correction of multitemporal Thematic Mapper data for use in agricultural land-cover classification and vegetation monitoring. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 12(7), 1471–1491. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431169108955184
Jogun, T., Lukić, A., & Gašparović, M. (2019). Simulation model of land cover changes in a post-socialist peripheral rural area: Požega-Slavonia County, Croatia. Hrvatski geografski glasnik, 81(1), 31–59. https://doi.org/10.21861/HGG.2019.81.01.02
Kamarudin, M. K. A., Gidado, K. A., Toriman, M. E., Juahir, H., Umar, R., Abd Wahab, N., Ibrahim, S., Awang, S., & Maulud, K. N. A. (2018). Classification of land use/land cover changes using GIS and remote sensing technique in Lake Kenyir Basin, Terengganu, Malaysia. International Journal of Engineering and Technology, 7(3.14), 12–15. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i3.14.16854
Khawaldah, H. A. (2016). A prediction of future land use/land cover in Amman area using GIS-based Markov model and remote sensing. Journal of Geographic Information System, 8(3), 412–427. https://doi.org/10.4236/jgis.2016.83035
Liu, J., Tian, H., Liu, M., Zhuang, D., Melillo, J. M., & Zhang, Z. (2005). China’s changing landscape during the 1990s: Large-scale land transformations estimated with satellite data. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(2), L02405. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021649
Michalak, W. Z. (1993). GIS in land use change analysis: Integration of remotely sensed data into GIS. Applied Geography, 13(1), 28–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/0143-6228(93)90078-F
United Nations. (2019). World population prospects 2019: Volume I, comprehensive tables. https://population.un.org/wpp/
Paola, J. D., & Schowengerdt, R. A. (1995). A detailed comparison of backpropagation neural network and maximum-likelihood classifiers for urban land use classification. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 33(4), 981–996. https://doi.org/10.1109/36.406684
Pijanowski, B. C., Brown, D. G., Shellito, B. A., & Manik, G. A. (2002). Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land use changes: A Land Transformation Model. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 26(6), 553–575. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0198-9715(01)00015-1
Qiao, Z., Liu, L., Qin, Y., Xu, X., Wang, B., & Liu, Z. (2020). The impact of urban renewal on land surface temperature changes: A case study in the main city of Guangzhou, China. Remote Sensing, 12(5), 794. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12050794
Raza, A., Raja, I. A., & Raza, S. (2012). Land-use change analysis of District Abbottabad, Pakistan: Taking advantage of GIS and remote sensing analysis. Science Vision, 18(1–2), 43–50.
Rimal, B., Sloan, S., Keshtkar, H., Sharma, R., Rijal, S., & Shrestha, U. B. (2020). Patterns of historical and future urban expansion in Nepal. Remote Sensing, 12(4), 628. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12040628
Seto, K. C., Güneralp, B., & Hutyra, L. R. (2012). Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(40), 16083–16088. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109
Silva, J. S., da Silva, R. M., & Santos, C. A. G. (2018). Spatiotemporal impact of land use/land cover changes on urban heat islands: A case study of Paço do Lumiar, Brazil. Building and Environment, 136, 279–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2018.03.041
Turner, B. L., II. (2002).Toward integrated land-change science: Advances in 1.5 decades of sustained international research on land-use and land-cover change. In W. Steffen, J. Jäger, D. J. Carson, & C. Bradshaw (Eds.), Challenges of a changing earth: Proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 10–13 July 2001 (21–26). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19016-2_3
Veldkamp, T. I. E., Wada, Y., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Döll, P., Gosling, S. N., Liu, J., Masaki, Y., Oki, T., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Kim, H., & Ward, P. J. (2017). Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century. Nature Communications, 8, 15697. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15697
Verburg, P. H., Neumann, K., & Nol, L. (2011). Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies. Global Change Biology, 17(2), 974–989. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02307.x
Walter, V. (2004). Object-based classification of remote sensing data for change detection. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 58(3–4), 225–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2003.09.007
Wang, R., Derdouri, A., & Murayama, Y. (2018). Spatiotemporal simulation of future land use/cover change scenarios in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Sustainability, 10(6), 2056. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10062056
Wasige, E. J., Groen, T. A., Smaling, E., & Jetten, V. (2013). Monitoring basin-scale land cover changes in Kagera Basin of Lake Victoria using ancillary data and remote sensing. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 21, 32–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2012.08.005
Yang, C., Wei, T., & Li, Y. (2022). Simulation and spatio-temporal variation characteristics of LULC in the context of urbanization construction and ecological restoration in the Yellow River Basin. Sustainability, 14(2), 789. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020789
Yang, Q., Ding, Y., de Vries, B., Han, Q., & Ma, H. (2014). Assessing regional sustainability using a model of coordinated development index: A case study of mainland China. Sustainability, 6(12), 9282–9304. https://doi.org/10.3390/su6129282
Yin, J., Yin, Z., Zhong, H., Xu, S., Hu, X., Wang, J., & Wu, J. (2011). Monitoring urban expansion and land use/land cover changes of Shanghai metropolitan area during the transitional economy (1979–2009) in China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 177(1–4), 609–621. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-010-1660-8
Zhang, P., Li, Y., Jing, W., Yang, D., Zhang, Y., Liu, Y., Geng, W., Rong, T., Shao, J., Yang, J., & Qin, M. (2020). Comprehensive assessment of the effect of urban built-up land expansion and climate change on net primary productivity. Complexity, 2020, 8489025. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8489025
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Sahira Khan, Jamil Fazal, Shehla Gul, Bilal Khan

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Under the Creative Common Attribution (CC-BY 4.0) license, authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication.





